In a new commentary for China Daily (Dec 3, 2012), Dr Steinbock outlines “the way forward for new [Chinese] leadership.”

China will continue to rebound in the short- term but its challenges will increase in the medium- term. With reforms, though, China's new leadership can build on the country's huge long-term growth potential.Some observers believe China's growth prospects will decline dramatically, plunging to 4%-5% in the next decade. Others argue that, with economic development, some deceleration is inevitable, but growth would remain around 6%-8% in the coming decade. How can China sustain its growth in such a challenging international environment?

In his commentary, Dr Steinbock explores the shift from economic growth to GDP per capita as the new basic criteria for the coming growth initiatives. He shows why the Chinese economy is rebounding, even though Shanghai market has been declining. Further, he lists half a dozen key structural reforms - including the shift from investment-led growth to consumption-driven growth, as well as strengthened local governance, coupled with a shift in the growth model from land-sales to increasing efficiencies - that the new Chinese leadership is likely to promote.

The new leadership must deter external efforts to exclude China from free trade in Asia and accelerate regional integration. In potentially highly adverse conditions, the new leadership will seek to protect China from the global crisis and support the country's sustained reforms and integration into the world economy. "By mid-2013, the new leadership is likely to develop its policy platform," he concludes. "At the broadest level, the policies are likely to focus on economic structural reforms, continued intra-party democratization, intensified fight against corruption, and China's rising global influence."